Forex – Weekly outlook: October 19 – 23
Investing.com – The dollar was broadly higher on Friday and the euro weakened amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates this year while the European Central Bank could scale up its quantitative easing program.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.33% to 94.76, recovering from Wednesday’s seven-week lows. The index still ended the week down 0.31%, its third consecutive weekly decline.
EUR/USD retreated 0.35% to 1.1347 in late trade, having hit a seven-week high of 1.1494 on Thursday, and ended the week 0.18% lower.
The dollar fell on Wednesday after weak U.S. retail sales numbers dampened expectations for a rate hike this year.
But a report Thursday showing that core inflation in the U.S. rose more than expected in the year to September indicated that consumer prices are set to rise.
The euro turned sharply lower on Thursday after ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said additional measures to boost price growth in the euro zone are needed.
The remarks underlined expectations that the ECB will ease policy further at its upcoming meeting on Thursday.
Data on Friday confirmed that the rate of inflation in the euro area turned negative in September for the first time since the ECB launched its trillion euro asset purchase program in March, with the consumer price index down 0.1% on a year-over-year basis.
The dollar was also higher against the yen on Friday, with USD/JPY rising 0.46% to 119.43, rebounding from Thursday’s seven-week trough of 118.05. The pair still ended the week down 0.63%.
The greenback’s gains were held in check following the release of mixed U.S. economic reports.
The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment rebounded in October, following four months of declines.
The preliminary reading of the UoM consumer sentiment index came in at 92.1 compared to forecasts of 89 and up from 87.2 in September.
But another report showed that U.S. industrial production declined 0.2% in September, pressured lower by weakness in the oil and gas sector.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Monday’s data on Chinese third quarter economic growth will also be closely watched amid fears that a China-led slowdown in global growth could prompt the Fed to delay hiking rates for longer.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, October 19
China is to release data on third quarter economic growth as well as reports on industrial production and fixed asset investment.
Later in the day, Fed Governor Lael Brainard is to speak at an event in Chicago.
Tuesday, October 20
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.
Switzerland is to publish data on the trade balance.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to testify on the BoE and Financial Services Bill before the Treasury Committee, in London.
Canada is to produce data on wholesale sales.
The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.
New York Fed President William Dudley and Fed Governor Jerome Powell are both to speak at an event in New York.
Wednesday, October 21
The U.K. is to release data on public sector net borrowing.
The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
Thursday, October 22
Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence.
In the euro zone, Spain is to publish data on the unemployment rate.
The U.K. is to release figures on retail sales.
The ECB is to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.
Canada is to publish data on retail sales.
The U.S. is to produce data on initial jobless claims and existing home sales.
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